Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Is First place good



According to the Washington Policy Center, Washington state consistently places in the top five states as far as the number of new business started. Then again, it also placed in the top 3 for business terminations during the same years.

It was noted that just because a business terminated does not mean that business failed. Businesses could have terminated because the Owners retired and closed the business or sold it to another company.

Business Starts and Closures
According to the latest data available, Washington ranks 3rd in business starts and 2nd in business terminations (2006).

Washington ranked 5th in business starts in 2005 and 3rd in 2004. The state ranked 1st in business closures in 2005 and 1st in 2004.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

DDES Pre-Submittal Service Will Reduce Permit Review Time


King County is taking the next step to reform customer service by improving the process of applying for mid-size permits at the Department of Development and Environmental Services – working up-front with customers who bring in permits too complex for over-the-counter service.

Starting April 25 customers with development permits too complex for over-the-counter service, but not complex enough to qualify for a pre-application meeting, will be entered into a new program called Pre-Submittal Services (PSS).

The PSS process will provide direct customer service to applicants before they submit the application by providing feedback to identify technical issues or red flags, and set expectations for the process ahead. This will allow staff at the Department of Development and Environmental Services (DDES) to immediately initiate or review the application as soon as it is submitted, rather than having to go back to the applicant to request clarity or more information.

“Our Department has been working purposefully and energetically over the last year to make permitting processes at King County less burdensome,” said DDES Director John Starbard. “I’m optimistic about this reform to our services. It should speed up review times, improve communication with our customers, and enable applicants to start their projects sooner.”

Incorrect and incomplete application submittals are a major factor that add to the cost and complexity of the permitting process.

PSS will assist with twelve types of mid-size permit applications:
􀂃New Dwellings
􀂃Additions/Remodels/Accessory Structures*
􀂃Agricultural Buildings
􀂃Signs*
􀂃Tenant Improvements*
􀂃Small Commercial Buildings
􀂃Site Plan Resubmittal
􀂃Residential Revision
􀂃Grading
􀂃Right-Of-Way-Use
􀂃Boundary Line Adjustments
􀂃Separate Lot/Lot Mergers

*Some of these permit types may be covered already in the easy over-the-counter permit process

Beginning April 25, applicants who have a PSS qualifying project will pay $357 up front, which will be credited to the cost of the application once the final paperwork is submitted. The total processing time is expected to drop significantly, and each applicant will work with DDES staff to help ensure their paperwork is right the first time, and they can prevent delays associated with the need to stop processing and contact the applicant for more information or clarity.
PSS will be conducted during business days from 9:00 am to 3:00 pm (with a lunch break between 12:00 to 1:00 pm).

The PSS process builds on a series of reforms at DDES under the guidance of King County Executive Dow Constantine, and DDES Director John Starbard. Reforms include the introduction of a fixed-fee model to provide cost certainty for building permits, permit integration with other county agencies, over-the-counter permits, a revised permit intake process, and enhanced relationships with cities and stakeholders.

For hours and location of DDES, visit www.kingcounty.gov/permits

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Buying after Bankruptcy, Short Sale or Foreclosure


I hear questions from time to time from people about the guidelines relating to buying a home after a bankruptcy, short sale or foreclosure. While the requirements are not universal, here is a matrix that was put together by Homefront Mortgage that I found quite useful.

https://images.agentcenter.com/client/3/9/9/36993/CREDIT_MATRIX.pdf

Monday, April 18, 2011

County revamps some permit review


SEATTLE — King County said it is improving the application process for mid-size permits at the Department of Development and Environmental Services by working with customers who bring in permits that are too complex for over-the-counter service.

The new program is called Pre-Submittal Services. It starts April 25 and is for customers with permits that are too complex for over-the-counter service but not complex enough to qualify for a pre-application meeting.

The county said this will let the staff identify technical issues or red flags, set expectations for the process ahead and avoid having to go back to applicants for more information. Incomplete submittals add to the cost and complexity of permitting.

PSS will apply to a variety of project types including new dwellings, remodels, additions, small commercial buildings and boundary line adjustments.

Applicants with a qualifying project will pay $357 up front, which will be credited to the cost of the application. The county said processing time is expected to drop significantly.

Daily Journal of Commerce

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Fannie Mae offers Buyers closing cost assistance until June 30th


Fannie Mae announced today that people purchasing a Fannie Mae-owned HomePath property will receive up to 3.5 percent in closing cost assistance. The initial offer must be submitted on or after April 11, 2011; and the sale must close on or before June 30, 2011 to be eligible for the incentive. Additionally, they'll pay a $1,000 bonus to buyers' agents in Washington State. One caveat, buyers must reside in the home as their primary residence (sales to investors are excluded).

"Attracting qualified buyers to the market and reducing the inventory of vacant homes remains essential to stabilizing neighborhoods and helping the market recover," said Terry Edwards, Executive Vice President of Credit Portfolio Management. "Since interest rates remain low, the incentive will go a long way toward helping even more families buy a new home so this is a great time for Fannie Mae to offer some assistance."

All Fannie Mae-owned HomePath properties are listed on HomePath.com and most listings include detailed property descriptions, photographs, community and school information, and more. In addition, many Fannie Mae-owned properties are eligible for special HomePath Mortgage and HomePath Renovation Mortgage financing, which offers homebuyers an opportunity to purchase with as little as 3 percent down.

http://www.homepath.com/

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Excuse me sir, would you like your new home facing the club house or sewage lagoon?





Saint Consulting interviewed 1,000 people to find out what they thought were the most undesirable projects to be built near them. Not too surprising, landfills, casinos, and gravel pits topped the list. Heck, even Walmart was on there.


Maybe it was just too obvious to identify but, how about a sewage plant? Well, a group of landowners in Washington State just learned that exact thing may be happening literally, right next to them. The development is approved for 120 new homes. Individuals bought lots with plans to build vacation homes. With designs for a clubhouse, equestrian center and gated entry, this new development was on its way to becoming one of the nicest in the county.

Not only will the new development be affected but also the existing farms and orchards that surround it. Local farmers and longtime residents strongly oppose the lagoon and have been busy writing letters.

The application was made by a company that hauls sewage. The property they selected for the lagoon includes critical slope areas on it. The applicant stated that their plan is to dump the raw sewage into an open lagoon. Then wait for the “liquids” to evaporate out. Then they’ll scoop up the “solids,” haul them away and repeat the cycle. This is a poorly thought out project. In one part of their application they said they anticipated no adverse impacts of smell to the surrounding residents.

The small site they selected also has a ravine on it. The ravine heads down a steep embankment towards dozens of farms and the river running through town. Since little to no evaporation will occur during the winter months, the rains and snow melt will add to the level of the pond and increase the chances of an overflow.

A week ago the County issued a Mitigated Determination of Non-Significance for the sewage lagoon and opened it up for public comment.

This whole lagoon idea has left a bad taste in many people’s mouth.

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

How small of a home could you live in?











Mini Bungalows are coming to Seattle but could you live in a 300-sf home?

One of the first passive houses in Seattle will open for tours later this month. The project, called Mini-B, demonstrates super-efficient green building techniques.

Mini-B is short for mini-bungalow. The 300-square-foot prototype dwelling is designed to meet the city's requirements for a backyard cottage on a single-family lot. The unit has a bathroom, kitchenette and sleeping area, and is in the parking lot of the Phinney Neighborhood Center at 6532 Phinney Ave. N.

It will be open the weekend of Jan. 29 and each weekend after that for six months. Visits also can be arranged during the week by appointment.

Passive houses have been built for years in Germany and Sweden. They combine highly efficient enclosures with passive solar strategies to create comfortable spaces that cost little to heat.

Passive House Northwest, a local nonprofit, says passive houses use about 85 percent less energy to operate than comparable conventional buildings.

Joe Giampietro, director of housing at Johnson Braund Design Group, is a passive house consultant and developed Mini-B. He said he was inspired by a presentation put on by the Urbana, Ill.-based Passive House Institute about two years ago, and soon after became a passive house consultant. He said there are about 40 such consultants in the region and about 12 passive houses underway in Seattle, including one in Southwest Seattle that is just about complete.

Other green building certification programs target many elements of green construction, but passive houses are focused mostly on energy and an efficient envelope.

“A number of us in the Northwest... are convinced that this is the answer to many of our energy problems because buildings are still the largest users of energy and the most cost-efficient way to address that is through better building envelope,” Giampietro said.

But examples are needed to show that passive houses can work. Giampietro said the goal of the Mini-B project is to expose more people to passive house methods and generate public interest. “What I'm trying to do is to make some funds available to pursue passive house design,” he said.

Giampietro is especially interested in getting nonprofit housing developers to give passive a try. He said passive houses are an easy way to develop affordable housing that is energy efficient without adding photovoltaics or other sources of renewable energy. If a modular units were used, he said these projects could be made for less than $80,000 per unit.

The Mini-B module was built on the Georgetown campus of South Seattle Community College and trucked to the Phinney Neighborhood Center. Finishing touches are going on now.

After six months, Mini-B will be offered for sale as a backyard cottage or cabin. Giampietro said he hopes the sale will cover the development costs. Any profit would go to sponsors including the Phinney Neighborhood Association, Seattle Central Community College and probably a nonprofit housing organization.

For now, Mini-B is purely an exhibit. People can tour the space and it may be used for meetings but not for housing. To test the energy claims, Giampietro said the space will use power, heat and ventilation.

“It will be getting a workout because people will be coming and visiting it. It will be maintaining it's interior temperature and air quality the whole time.”

For more information, visit http://minibpassivehouse.com.


By KATIE ZEMTSEFF
Journal Staff Reporter

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Properties in Foreclosure Typically Sell for 26% Less Than Non-Distressed Homes

Builders with any REOs in their communities better brace themselves for difficult appraisals: bank-owned properties went for an average of 35% less than non-foreclosure sales.

“One year ago, it was 65%,” Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac’s director of marketing communications, told BUILDER Thursday, after the Irvine, Calif.-based data firm released its 2010 second-quarter statistics for foreclosure sales. According to the firm, more than 248,000 distressed properties (in default, scheduled for auction, or real-estate-owned) were sold in April, May, and June of this year.

While those figures represent nearly a 5% increase in total numbers compared to the previous quarter, RealtyTrac executives said that non-distressed sales grew even more during that period. They attributed that growth to the federal housing tax credit, which required a signed contract by April 30, 2010. Overall, foreclosure sales were 24% of all residential sales in 2010’s second quarter.

That level of volume continues to exert downward pressure on pricing. According to RealtyTrac data, foreclosure sales sold for an average of 26% less than their counterparts that were not in foreclosures. Builders with any REOs in their communities better brace themselves for difficult appraisals: bank-owned properties went for an average of 35% less than non-foreclosure sales. Short sales, which are being actively encouraged by the Obama administration, posted an average discount of 13% compared to non-distressed transactions.

Note: A foreclosure sale is a transaction on a home in any stage of the foreclosure process, while a pre-foreclosure sale is typically a short sale.

Transaction Type Average Price Discount
Foreclosure Sale 26%
REO Sale 35%
Pre-Foreclosure Sale 13%

But RealtyTrac’s Blomquist said that his company does not expect to see a much-dreaded (and much-discussed) double-dip in home values as a result of these pricing trends. “Foreclosures continue to have a dampening effect on home prices, but we don’t expect a double dip,” he said. “While REOs have been increasing, there is no evidence that there is going to be this tidal wave that will hit and crater home prices again. It’s more like a dripping faucet” that will keep home values from any significant appreciation.

Of course, in some states, that drippy faucet feels more like a constantly flooding basement. Nevada, which was mentioned earlier, has the highest percentage of foreclosure sales in the country, with 56% of all residential transactions involving a property in some state of foreclosure. Other foreclosure crisis zones are dealing with similar situations, with foreclosure sale rates of 47% for Arizona and 43% for California, which rank second and third after Nevada on that metric.

By:
Alison Rice
Builder 2010

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

King County to offer same-day building permits


While the type of permits that will qualify is fairly limited, it is definitely a step in the right direction and I applaud Executive Constantine for making it. Let’s see if we can get other permit review times down and bring more predictability to fees charged in reviewing them.




New “over-the-counter” permitting at DDES will enable walk-in, one-day service beginning Oct. 18

Front-line staff and supervisors redesign the process for simple permits to better serve customers and eliminate weeks-long wait time

The weeks-long wait for review of many environmental and building permits in King County will soon be a thing of the past. Beginning Monday, October 18, the county’s Department of Development and Environmental Services (DDES) will provide expedited, one-day or “over the counter” review processes for many permit types.

“It doesn’t make sense for someone who needs a quick oil change to have to wait in line behind someone who needs their engine rebuilt,” said King County Executive Dow Constantine. “This change brings that same logical approach to our permitting services, and will save our customers time, money, and aggravation.”

Under the guidance of the Executive’s reform agenda, a team of front-line employees and supervisors jointly designed the streamlined process by which customers who need a simple permit will be able to walk into DDES without an appointment, submit an application, and obtain their permit on the same day.

“It has been awkward to talk to people about our ‘over-the-counter’ permits when they have to wait weeks and weeks for an appointment just to get to the counter,” said DDES Director John Starbard. “This is part of the reforms we’re making at DDES to make our services easier, more accessible, and more predictably-priced.”

Permits that can be obtained “over-the-counter” beginning on Monday, October 18, will include small residential remodels, tenant improvements to commercial spaces, building additions, decks, seismic retrofits, and many others. Appointments will still be required for complex development proposals.

Customers who prefer to make an appointment in advance will still have that option.

DDES offered walk-in permit services in the past, but in the late 1990’s the department was compelled to move to an appointment system due to a surge in construction and other permitting activity. Starbard says the current lower volume of permit applications and a smaller customer base due to annexations and incorporations makes it possible to return to a walk-in system for many permit types.
Jarrod Lewis, DDES Assistant Supervisor for the Planning and Customer Services Section, said front-line employees leveraged their practical, daily experience in processing these kinds of permits to create a new, more streamlined, efficient and effective system.

“It has been very rewarding to see our staff come together and develop service improvements that enable us to work more efficiently while also truly benefitting our customers,” he said.

Starbard announced the redesigned permitting process at today’s meeting of the Metropolitan King County Council’s Committee of the Whole.

Friday, September 3, 2010

Secret Squirrel missions of a land use consultant


Having others ask the questions you’re afraid to

Some time ago a client wanted to find a new space for their professional business. They found a home that another business had been using for their office and purchased it. Sometime later, my client questioned whether it was legal for them to operate their business from there. They were afraid to go to the City and ask, for fear they’d be found in violation of City codes but wanted to better understand their situation.

They hired Outdoor Perspectives to quietly investigate the matter for them. We talked with the City and others without disclosing the business or its location, then related our findings back to the client. We discovered the following:

• The property was zoned to allow for professional and legal office space without exception, so they could operate their business on the site but were subject to commercial building codes

• The previous business was using it as a home based business (i.e. using it as their primary residence and their home office). Home based businesses are regulated differently than commercial office space.

• The building did not currently meet commercial building codes. As such, they were non-compliant and subject to a code enforcement action if the City found out and took action against them.

• To bring the office space into commercial building codes compliance, the client would need to:
o Get approval for a Change of Occupancy type from the City

o Bring the building up to commercial standards (i.e. ADA compliant, parking standards etc). Additionally, the improvements done to the structure of the building would need a permit from the City).

In the end, the Client learned how the previous business had been legally operating from the site. Second, they understood what they needed to do to bring their building into compliance. Finally, they had a good idea of what might happen if they choose to continue to operate out of compliance of the City code.

The client was relieved to better understand their situation so they could plan accordingly.

www.outdoor-perspectives.com

Monday, August 23, 2010

Ten-Point Program for Construction Job Recovery in Seattle



Seattle Daily Journal of Commerce
August 19th, 2010 by Jerry VanderWood

What else, in addition to infrastructure investments, can government do to stimulate the economy, particularly the struggling construction sector? Justifiably so, government entities at all levels are asking that question. AGC had the opportunity to share some ideas with the City of Seattle, and what follows is AGC’s suggested 10-point program for construction industry job recovery:

1. Ensure timely implementation of the Bored Tunnel, seawall replacement, Sound Transit 2 programs, the SR 520 and Mercer corridor projects. Plus, seek to accelerate construction of other critical infrastructure projects. City capital projects (from all departments) expected to go to bid the remainder of this year and next year should be re-estimated for potential cost savings. In the current bid environment where projects are coming in 10 to 20 percent under the engineers estimate, the City may be able to identify sufficient savings to advance additional projects.

2. Contract out some of the road maintenance and repair work typically performed in-house. With a reduced City work force and furloughs this may provide a way to maintain adequate levels of service.

3. If not already underway and subject to Federal Funding participation, embark upon energy efficiency upgrades for City-owned buildings.

4. Partner with AGC and other industry groups to work with the state legislature to develop financing mechanisms that support essential City infrastructure investments in both transportation and other public facilities.

5. Promote common sense incentives, tax credits and policy changes designed to stimulate new private- and public-sector demand.

6. Eliminate discriminatory project labor agreements (PLAs) that favor one segment of the labor force over another. We need to ensure that all workers have the opportunity to participate in the recovery.

7. Establish a single point-of-contact among departments within the City for expediting major projects (similar to what was done for the tunnel retrofit project). Improving coordination among Departments for processing permits will reduce permitting time and save on overall project costs. This could include a one-stop permit process for these projects similar to what King County and the State have established for some environmental permits.

8. Eliminate the practice of adding additional costs and fees to permits and other services to augment Department budgets in this down economy. This appears to be happening to private developers, contractors and other public agencies.

9. Timely removal or installation of utilities, particularly those for which Seattle City Light is responsible. This is a major issue for contractors.

10. As part of the City’s initiative to develop a better prepared workforce, partner with the AGC Education Foundation to establish construction math curriculums in various high schools, based on the pilot project completed in Bellingham.

Any other suggestions for the City of Seattle?


Jerry VanderWood is communications director for the Associated General Contractors of Washington, where he gets to learn about construction issues from the best in the business. He's originally from South Carolina, then Washington, D.C., and moved to the Seattle area in 1989. He resides with his wife and kids in the suburbs of Issaquah

www.outdoor-perspectives.com

Thursday, August 12, 2010

The new 520 bridge (video simulation)

The Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) has posted a video simulation of what traveling across the new Evergreen Point floating bridge will look like.

Next month the WSDOT begins its search for a design-build team on a $700 million to $1 billion project replacing SR 520 bridge between Seattle and Medina.

The project is scheduled to finish by December 2014.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCV7COUSs0k

Thursday, August 5, 2010

What Every Real Estate Professional Should Know About Land Surveys


A surveyor friend at Site Surveying & Mapping relayed a story about a last minute dilemma they faced that almost killed a closing for a Realtor on a million dollar deal. How did it happen? How could it have been avoided?

Do you ever wonder what type of survey you might need on your site? What are the differences in an ALTA/ACSM and the standards within WAC 332-130? Can I just use the existing survey provided by the Seller?

Having these questions asked over and over lead to the creation of a booklet which will hopefully serve as a good reference for people in understanding Land Surveys as they pertain to the Real Estate Professional.


Link to the full article:
http://www.slideshare.net/JeffMcCann/cfakepathrealtor-and-the-land-surveyor?from=share_email






Tuesday, July 6, 2010

What’s happening in your neighborhood?


Which neighborhood are you developing in? The Government Affairs issue tracker developed by the Master Builders Association provides a brief status report on current local and regional issues.

http://www.mba-ks.com/library/issues/GA_Issue_Tracker.pdf

Friday, July 2, 2010

Quick Reference Sheet of Significant Changes in 2009 IRC




The 2009 International Residential Code (IRC) took effect last Thursday. The Master Builders Association has put together a good Quick Reference Sheet of Significant Changes to be aware of.

http://www.mbaks.com/library/issues/2009IRCSummaryMatrix_GH.pdf

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Court orders $1.15M paid in property rights case


Dorothy English wanted to develop 20 acres she and her late husband bought in 1953, and divide it into eight home sites.

PORTLAND (AP) — The Oregon Supreme Court has ordered Multnomah County to pay the estate of property rights pioneer Dorothy English $1.15 million in a dispute over development restrictions.

The ruling last week ended a long legal battle over whether the county owed English compensation for initially denying permission to develop home sites on her property northwest of Portland.

English died in April 2008 at 95. She wanted to develop 20 acres she and her late husband bought in 1953, and divide it into eight home sites for her family.
She became the spokeswoman for Measure 37, which voters approved in 2004 to give property owners the right to develop their land.
When it passed, she filed the state's first Measure 37 claim. She was joined by 6,500
Oregonians who demanded either compensation for diminished property values or for the right to build, in many cases, extensive subdivisions.
Voters later scaled back development rights by passing Measure 49 in 2007. Most of the original claimants settled for a process that would allow them to build one to three homes.

English continued her battle in the courts.

In December 2006, she won a compensation judgment for $1.15 million. The county agreed to let her develop eight lots instead of paying her the compensation. But English rejected conditions the county attached.

In 2009, the Oregon Court of Appeals ruled in her favor and later scolded the county for engaging in what it called a “war of attrition” against English, who had died the year before.

Monday, June 14, 2010

New Legislation Extends Time Period for Final Plat Approval


Finally, a little good news for builders and developers who are trying to plat properties. The legislature has granted a temporary extension to save preliminary plats that could expire during this economic downturn.

The Municipal Research and Service Center of Washington (MRSC) has issued an opinion on the Washington State Legislature’s recent adoption of Substitute Senate Bill 6544. The legislation, signed by the Governor, extends preliminary plats for two years, from five to seven years until 2014.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Opinion:
In SSB 6544 (Ch. 79, Laws of 2010), the 2010 legislature extended the statutory time period for submitting final plats for city or county approval from five years after preliminary plat approval to seven years after that approval. It also extended the vesting period for approved final plats from five to seven years. This legislation, which is effective June 10, sunsets on December 31, 2014.

It appears that the purpose of this temporary extension is to save preliminary plats that are in jeopardy of lapsing because of the economic downturn. This purpose should help explain which preliminary plats this legislation applies to. The original bill included an intent section that, although deleted in the substitute bill that was adopted, sheds light on legislative intent:

(1) The legislature finds that active land use permits are expiring due to a downturn on the state economy. Considerable cost has been expended by applicants and local jurisdictions to approve projects. Allowing these projects to expire would make it difficult for the state to meet its housing needs in the future and impose considerable staff costs on local governments to perform work that has already been completed.

(2) The legislature further finds that, in the current period of economic challenge, an extension for plat approvals will contribute to the overall employment of the state by employing citizens of Washington as soon as is practicable in the family wage jobs of the land development and home building industries.

The public testimony in favor of the bill, as summarized in the various bill reports, also focused on the current economic climate and its effect on development activity.

To read the full opinion, please go to: http://www.mrsc.org/Subjects/planning/ssb6544.aspx

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Can you spare 70 hours for EPA?


Got an extra 70 hours to donate? Are you willing to disclose sensitive financial information? If so, you’re invited to take part in EPA’s upcoming survey?

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is asking for your input as it considers five new regulations. One of these regulations would require existing developments to retrofit inadequate storm water management controls and another that would require developers to create long-term controls designed to better manage storm water discharges well past the construction phase.

The EPA plans to distribute the survey to 2,400 builders and developers in July. Some people have objections to questions, which require respondents to detail sensitive financial information. The surveys are burdensome as well, with the longer version expected to take about 70 hours to complete, according to the EPA’s own estimates.

The agency is accepting comments from the development community through June 9. The draft is available at the EPA storm water Web site.

To submit comments to the docket — Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OW-2009-0817 — click here or go to http://www.regulations.gov/search/Regs/home.html#home

Are you going to take the survey?

Thursday, May 6, 2010

All in a day's work


During the final days of their feasibility period to purchase a property, a client requested that I go the Seller’s office to review some documents.

It seems that the Seller had located some additional material that had not previously been disclosed. I was asked to run down and make a quick review of the materials and report back on my findings.

(Note the 21 banker’s boxes of new material)

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Lot Shortage


Even as foreclosures continue to flood some of the worst-hit housing markets in the country, economists are beginning to sound the warning that today’s extremely low levels of new residential production could lead to significant housing shortages, especially among market-rate rental apartments, as household formation rates return to normal.

The housing downturn and economic recession have kept household formation rates at below-normal levels for roughly three years, said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. As the economy moves to higher ground, the housing market will begin to feel the pressure from new households, he said, and there will be a surge of demand from echo boomers, who comprise an even larger group than their baby-boomer parents.

NAHB economists project that the industry will need to deliver 16 million homes over the next 10 years to keep pace with demand. As the excess inventory is worked off, which is likely by the end of 2012, the long-run demand for new housing — based on population growth, immigration and the replacement of losses from the housing stock — will average approximately 1.5 million single-family and 300,000 multifamily units annually, or about 1.8 to 1.9 million total starts.

Coming off extremely low levels of construction, starts last month were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000, a level that is far below what will be needed.

When housing starts bottomed out in the first quarter of 2009, they were running at only 27% of average starts during the “normal” production period of 2000 to 2003, according to analysis by NAHB. This year, production is expected to rise to 45% of normal, with a further increase to 67% of normal next year.

The road back to normal levels of residential construction will be longer for some states than others. By the end of 2011, the top 20% of the states will see their production levels back to normal. Those states include Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, New Mexico, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

So, how long will it take to bring new Lots on-line in the Puget Sound to meet our coming demand? The average nunber of years (from plat application to recording) in King County for single family lots has been 4.75 years!

Average processing time (in years): (Source, New Home Trends)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
King County: 4.75 years
Other Cities in King County: 3.26
Pierce County: 5.44
Other Cities in Pierce County: 3.25
Snohomish County: 3.09
Other Cities in Snohomish: 3.09
Thurston County: 3.09
Other Cities in Thurston County: 2.85